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The Canadian economy is gathering steam, and all provinces are participating in the recovery this year. Real GDP will likely expand across the country in 2010, with the strongest growth rates seen in Western Canada as commodity-sector activity recovers from a depressed year in 2009. Indeed, the theme of the “West Outperforming the Rest” should persist into 2011 as global commodity demand remains fi rm, while a strong Canadian dollar tempers growth in Central Canada and capital investment activity begins to wane in Atlantic Canada.

Western Canada is poised to benefi t from a rebound in commodity prices, fi rming global demand for raw materials and a lower overall cost environment in the energy sector. Oil prices have more than doubled from their recession low, and investment activity in Western Canada has started to pick up as a result. At the same time, reduced royalty rates in Alberta and various incentives in B.C. and Saskatchewan have helped improve the energy economics in the region, and have removed some of the political uncertainty surrounding the Alberta royalty regime. Meantime, Western Canada’s post-recession fi scal hole is much shallower than in Central Canada, and as a result, the impact on growth of budget-balancing measures will be milder in the coming years, allowing real GDP growth of about 4% per year through 2011.

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